WP1 will focus on the development of risk models to draw data together across the project and assess transmission risk under increasing complexity in public transport scenarios.
Initially, micro scale models will simulate likelihood of exposure through aerosol, close range and surface contacts in idealised public transport scenarios, with different passenger numbers in typical vehicles. Zonal flow models, together with droplet dispersion approaches and Markov chain surface-hand contact models will be leveraged, to link air, droplet and fomite transmission routes. These models will be coupled to, and parametrised by, CCTV data from WP4; experimental and computational droplet models from WP5; behavioural and demographic information from WP3; as well as surface and air sampling measurements from WP2 in different public transport settings. WP1 aims to use the outputs from these transmission models and data to produce a simple risk planning tool in the early stages of the project, which will be advanced throughout as more data is incorporated.